Welcome to the QPOL Newsletter. Starting this first issue of 2024, you can expect a single publication at the end of the month, with the occasional offhand article/podcast here and there. There is just so much information being thrown at us as is, it requires time to properly assess it all to form a cohesive narrative of what’s going on and why. The fact it’s an election year doesn’t make that any easier, and as you’ll see in this month’s article, I’d argue that’s very much intentional. This month’s issue will look back at the main points and conclusions we reached in 2023, and the road ahead for a turbulent 2024.
To kick things off, let’s take a look at my report card. The following topics will be covered more in depth at a later date. We’ve briefly covered them before, but they guarantee a restructuring of the financial plumbing being done by the cooler heads/sovereigntist forces prevailing at the Fed, and global finance in general.
SOFR liquidity now dominates the dollar futures market and has far surpassed what LIBOR had ever been. America sets the price of dollars now, not the City of London
Raising interest rates was the Fed’s speculative attack on non-banks/shadow banks, or more appropriately, Eurodollar banks. Thats what the demise of SVB was, as will be for the following banks and PE zombies that shall fall because money is no longer free.
Danielle DiMartino Booth vouches for me on this, by the way…
Basel III greatly increases the reserve requirements for banks and leverage requirements for REPOs and market activity in general. These new rules make “money for nothing” increasingly impossible for internationalist oligarchs to print out of thin air and leverage in order to rig both our markets and elections. Basel III seems to be the Fed, FDIC and the OCC taking the lead in its adoption. Doing so allows the Fed to regain control over the dollar by forcing consolidation in the banking system in America, and divorcing the US from globalism. Larger banks like JPM will tackle international financing, while smaller regionals will handle local projects to further nationalized the economy. Basel III might as well be named the America First Financial Recovery Act.
These are all pivotal points in monetary and financial history, pulling us towards a new normal of price discovery and economic activity. At the risk of sounding idealistic and cringe, these new policies will ultimately bankrupt bad actors and carve a path towards economic and societal prosperity. At the January Davos convention, Jamie Dimon said the quiet part out loud…
He spoke for the people. He knows they (as well as himself) are tired of the lies, corruption, and the belittling and oppression they feel from their leaders. Dimon basically endorsed Trump and said NO to Klaus Schwab and his ilk against global communism. Dimon is the default Secretary of State for damage control over the markets and foreign/domestic policy.
The Dreaded End of the BTFP
Time to explain the doom porn/debunk why this new Fed facility for banks isn’t another “bail out”….again. Let’s start with the tweet below 👇
Survival, Joe. The Fed is building new financial rails for not ONLY survival, but setting new standards for a robust infrastructure to stabilize the banking system for the long run.
Also, notice whenever panics actually happen as seen in the past, the shit to prevent them from happening isn’t made public. They say the opposite: “everything is fine. Best economy.” Blah blah blah, like Yellen said before the GFC…
“But they just said it’s a soft landing!!!!”
They say things all the time…
This is different because it’s a policy, NOT Fed speak. It’s just like when Powell was running with the transitory inflation line. He knew it was BS. Soft landing ain’t policy set in stone. It’s a narrative.
THIS is policy. A legal requirement. Narratives are NOT legal requirements.
Plebs are buying the same FUD that was spread during the BTFP. In reality, it’s a loan they pay back to the Fed at prevailing rates, regardless if it’s mandatory.
True, there IS a stigma to using the Fed’s discount window…and that’s a good thing.
To me, this sounds like a stress test to see which banks are worthy to survive or not and which ones don’t deserve to exist and/or are non-banks.
Just like they did with SVB, the Fed is going after enemy banks that think Powell and Jamie are bluffing about higher for longer.
These people have Fed Derangement Syndrome (FDS). It completely blocks any ability to look at the Fed’s actions with any objectivity or fairness. It’s “blame the Fed for everything” no matter what they do.
This new policy and action makes total sense. BTFP is going away and they do not want to be in the same situation again in the future. So if a bank has a run, they need to have the pipes greased beforehand to the discount window. Requiring banks do a “test” run, etc will help remove the “stigma” and ensure it works. And seriously, what “stigma”? If everyone is required to do it, there is no stigma.
The real stigma is QE, and the delusional anticipation of the market that it will return. The Bernanke doctrine of QE implies ZIRP. ZIRP is dead, therefore QE is dead. The Fed will cut rates to reasonable levels as they see fit with the business cycle, but only when inflation is tamed (not that it was ever about inflation). At the risk of repeating myself, QE is dead.
TL;DR The Fed is using tools to help good banks and punish bad ones (offshore banks). If you can't afford the help, raise capital or merge with someone who can. This program is great. Stop sperging over end of the world headlines. If you do, you’re taking the bait like a shmuck. Don’t do that. It’s unbecoming.
How do we know regionals are in bad shape if we don’t know how many banks used the BTFP?
Also, where’s the euro to go? 🤔
Lagarde at the ECB has been jawboning about rate cuts, but they can’t cut if Powell stays higher for longer. Europe will continue to hemorrhage.
Don’t Bank On Rate Cuts
An interesting factoid is the decline in volatility index (VIX) for Wednesday, January 23rd. Typically, when volatility is down, the markets are up, and vice versa.
Yet on the same day, consider where bitcoin is at.
Bitcoin was down 20%. Historically, it’s been closely correlated to SPX performance which is at an all-time high. Does this mean something is terribly wrong? One might argue Bitcoin is either seriously mis-priced because the last time SPX hit an all-time high, Bitcoin was at $69k. Now, it is almost 50% of that as we approach its cyclical four year halving. Per usual, I expect a bounce back in Bitcoin’s price after the halving occurs for the next year or so.
To address VIX and market prices though, I think it’s much simpler, yet more overlooked than most even consider. Currently the powers that be rigging the markets would rather save markets instead of Bitcoin. Whatever profits they take from the market moon, they’ll buy cheap OTC Bitcoin.
I’d even argue that Bitcoin is, for once, correctly priced given the lack of leverage people took advantage of with the Grayscale arbitrage a couple years back. That’s ultimately what caused the move to $69k. Whatever leverage and liquidity they have now is going into the market indicator that people trust and look towards the most for orthodox/established market health and financial security, the S&P 500.
If the S&P is up, the economy looks fine on paper to normies and there’s nothing to worry about. Companies can continue their beginning of year budget investments in hiring and portfolio management/outlook for the new year. Everyone is still hoping for rate cuts so they’ll remain in denial, pretending the year is gonna be fine and the fed will do what they want. All of this depends on the fantasy of the Fed cutting this year. They’re lying to themselves.
Take LPL Financial for instance ($LPLA). LPL’s beginning of the year plans were all predicated on fed rate cuts.
That’s one reason why I personally got swept up in their hiring process. They can’t be the only ones with this mindset. Everything a company (and Congress for that matter) will do this year depends on their hopes for rate cuts. The sooner Powell “pivots”, the cheaper Democrat money becomes to leverage to further rig the election. Despite the new price discovery under this new sovereign monetary regime, the markets are all still FAKE AND GAY AND EVERYONE IS IN DENIAL!!!
On the last day in January, Powell held the line at the FOMC hearing and kept rates at 5.5%. And to that, I wish all the pivoteers a Happy FOMC day, where Powell does nothing while boomers 💩 their pants 👖.
No matter how much markets may moon pre-FOMC to force Powell’s hand, they are met with the stark reality of his policy.
This is #HigherForLonger.
Just Chill
2024 is gonna be the year of false flags and psyops to pollute true signal and cause worry and strife amongst We the People. The goal is to pin us down emotionally and financially into submission to have us ready and willing to let the government do whatever they want to them (assuming Trump doesn’t win). The globalists think they’ll be able to anxiety pimp the masses to the point where we won’t fight back.
If it takes some fighting back and fighting amongst each other, they’ll do it (see the division between states that support Texas protecting the border. It echoes the Civil War). “They” as in the globalists. They’re willing to divide and conquer the people as much as possible to the point of violence, so long as the violence is the people amongst each other, and not specifically towards the government.
My advice to everyone is don’t let crazy doomsday fear porn headlines and strange happenings get the best of you. That’s what they want to have happen. They want your lizard brain to rely on dopamine hits of anxiety that something awful will happen.
The over sensationalism of “buy the rumor, sell the news” and have the people fight and argue about it all is the enemy’s main weapon in the information war. Don’t buy into it. Stay cool-headed.
Another theory that’s being used by numerous personalities and outlets is Webb’s “The Great Taking,” which basically makes the case that the Fed and all the globalist goons on Wall Street and the Central Banks throughout the world have a plan of controlled demolition of the economy in order to stealth the wealth of the people.
Compelling at first glance to some, but this is just as silly as arguing that the Fed and Wall Street are pro CBDC/MMT, which would destroy their commercial bank cash cow and destroy the preservation and creation of private capital. This is the backbone of the US economy. The Great Taking theory also makes the horrendous mistake of assuming that there is no nuance between those in power and, as George Carlin argued, that it’s all one big club and We The People aren’t in it Why would anyone think this would succeed without civil unrest and uprising?
I get that’s what the powers that be would like, but it’s not at the top of their list of things to do to us unless they’re completely running out of options. Even if they’re running out, it’s still highly unlikely and the last thing they wanna deal with…
Not to mention the cooler heads at the Fed (Powell) and on Wallstreet (Dimon) hold the strings of power and know it’s not in their interest in preserving the financial credibility of the United States.
This is fear porn looking for clicks and give you anxiety. It’s just dumb.
Ask yourself, “what is being presented to me, who is presenting it, why, and more importantly, why NOW at this very moment?” It’s to cause fright, panic, and finally exhaust you to submission.
Stay measured, cool, calm, and collected. That’s how we win…
“Therefore take no thought, saying, What shall we eat? or, What shall we drink? or, Wherewithal shall we be clothed?
for your heavenly Father knoweth that ye have need of all these things.
But seek ye first the kingdom of God, and his righteousness; and all these things shall be added unto you.
Take therefore no thought for the morrow: for the morrow shall take thought for the things of itself. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.”
- Matthew 6
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~ Mr. Pseu